ALDS Game 4 | Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox (Sox lead series 2-1) | Thursday, October 8, 2026 | 8:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM CT | Rate Field, Chicago | TBS, truTV, HBO Max
That one hurt. I told you the Sox would close it out in Game 3, and the Guardians answered with a 9-3 win built on two triples, 19 strikeouts and a first-ever franchise postseason game with two Cleveland triples. I was wrong, and I’m not going to pretend otherwise: through three games of this series I’m 1-for-3 on picks (I missed Game 1 and Game 3 and hit Game 2), and my Game 3 call looked silly by the third inning.
The good news is simple. The White Sox are still up 2-1, they’re back at Rate Field, and a win tonight sends them to the ALCS for the first time since 2005. Here’s what I think decides it.
Game 4 Info: Guardians at White Sox
- Date: Thursday, October 8, 2026
- First pitch: 8:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM CT
- Venue: Rate Field, Chicago
- TV: TBS, truTV, HBO Max (Spanish: UniMás); ESPN Radio nationally
- Series: White Sox lead best-of-five ALDS 2-1; Game 5, if needed, is Saturday, October 10 at Progressive Field in Cleveland
- Probable pitchers: Hagen Smith (White Sox, LHP, expected opener) vs. Parker Messick (Guardians, LHP)
- Odds: Essentially a pick’em. Depending on the book, the Guardians are around -112 to -120 and the Sox between -106 and +102; the total is 7.5. Weather looks mostly clear, in the low-to-mid 60s at first pitch.
What Happened in Game 3, and What It Doesn’t Mean
The Sox actually led early. Kyle Teel doubled home a run off Daniel Espino in the first. Then Cleveland scored four in the third, with Jo Adell hitting a bases-loaded triple off the White Sox bullpen, and kept adding. Jose Ramírez doubled, stole third and scored in the fifth, then tripled in two more runs in the eighth.
Two numbers stand out. Chicago hitters struck out 19 times and went 2-for-11 with runners in scoring position. Foster Griffin set a Guardians franchise record for a reliever with seven strikeouts in 2⅔ innings.
I’m trying not to overreact. The Sox bullpen had been spotless for most of the postseason before it faltered, and one bad night out of five playoff games is not a trend. But it does tell us something: Chicago’s offense is vulnerable to strikeouts when pitchers come at it with a steady parade of arms.
Parker Messick Is the Problem
Cleveland is starting a true starter against a bullpen game, and Messick is a good one. The rookie lefty went 12-9 with a 2.56 ERA in 32 starts. Sources cite either a 2.45 ERA in about 14⅔ innings at Rate Field or a 2.81 ERA in four starts against Chicago this season (different slices, same message: he handles us). He allowed two runs over 4⅓ innings in Game 1, and we still lost that game 3-0 on the other end.
There are cracks. One betting preview noted that Messick has allowed more than 3.5 hits in six of his last seven starts, and another pointed out that Cleveland has lost his last two starts. Chicago’s best path is to be patient, force him to work and get him out of the game before the 6th. Munetaka Murakami, who led the team with 35 homers and went deep off Messick in Game 1, is the guy I’m watching.
The White Sox Bullpen Plan
Hagen Smith is the opener again, as he was in the Game 1 win. The rookie lefty went 3-3 with a 1.29 ERA this season, striking out 41 in 28 innings but also walking 16, which is more than five per nine. That’s the whole profile: nasty stuff, a little wild.
One caveat I’d flag: Smith threw 21 pitches in relief in Game 3, so a long outing is unlikely. Grant Taylor is rested, and Erick Fedde and Jordan Hicks are reportedly fresh, with no injuries reported for either team. The danger is the bullpen’s workload. One preview noted that Chicago’s bullpen has been carrying a heavy workload in this series. Smith and Taylor have combined for 17 strikeouts and two runs, one earned, over 14 innings in their six games together this year, which is still elite.
Cleveland’s Lineup and Who’s Hot
Adell is 3-for-7 with four RBIs this postseason and has two triples. Ramírez, who missed about five weeks this summer after hand surgery, went 0-for-6 with two walks in the first two games and then came alive in Game 3. On the cold side, Angel Martínez is 0-for-12 with seven strikeouts.
Expected lineups, per MLB.com, are Kwan, Ramírez, DeLauter, Adell, Lowe, Martínez, Bazzana, Hedges and Rocchio for Cleveland, and Meidroth, Vargas, Murakami, Grichuk, Pham, Teel, Doyle, Braden Montgomery and Colson Montgomery for Chicago. These were reported as expected rather than official, so check the posted cards.
What Actually Decides Game 4
Three things. First, whether the Sox can avoid the strikeout trap against Messick by putting the ball in play and hitting his mistakes. Second, whether the opener-plus-bullpen plan gets the game to the late innings with a lead, where Taylor is rested. Third, whether Cleveland’s closer Cade Smith, who threw 19 pitches over two innings in Game 3, is fully available if it’s close.
I like the Sox’s home record (48-33) and the run differential edge for the season (+56 vs. Cleveland’s +11). I also respect that the Guardians have a rookie starter in a good spot and a lineup that finally woke up. This is a coin flip with a South Side crowd tilting it. I’ll go with Chicago in a tight one, and I’m hedging my confidence after Game 3.
My Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox 4, Cleveland Guardians 3 (White Sox win the series 3-1 and advance to the ALCS)
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