Miami Marlins (77-80) at Chicago Cubs (87-70) | Thursday, September 24, 2026 | 1:20 PM CT | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Two nights in a row, Miami has walked into Wrigley Field and ruined the party. Tuesday’s 12-inning loss saw Chicago strand 15 runners, including seven over the final four innings. Wednesday’s 3-2 defeat ended with the Marlins retiring nine straight Chicago hitters to close it out. As a Cubs fan, I’ve gone from confident to genuinely nervous watching this team fail to close out a playoff berth it clinched last year with room to spare. Today is the last regular-season home game at Wrigley Field in 2026, and Chicago needs either a win or an Arizona loss to finally make it official.
Here’s my real breakdown of today’s finale — the clinch scenario, the stalled milestone chase, and a bullpen issue that’s becoming impossible to ignore.
Game Info: Marlins at Cubs
- Date: Thursday, September 24, 2026
- First Pitch: 2:20 PM ET
- Venue: Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois — the final regular-season home game of 2026
- TV: Marquee Sports Network, Marlins.TV
- Series: Miami leads 2-0 after wins of 8-2 (12 innings) and 3-2
The Clinch Scenario, Explained
Chicago sits at 87-70 and remains locked in a three-way tie for the NL Wild Card lead with Philadelphia and San Diego, though the Cubs currently hold the top seed on tiebreakers, having won the season series against both clubs. A win today locks up the playoff berth outright. Even a loss doesn’t necessarily end the suspense — if Arizona loses to Colorado, Chicago clinches regardless of today’s result. But after watching this team fail to finish the job twice already this week, I’d much rather see them do it themselves on the field.
Pete Crow-Armstrong’s 40-40 Bid Keeps Stalling
This has become its own subplot within the bigger playoff drama. Crow-Armstrong sits at 45 home runs and 39 stolen bases, one theft away from becoming just the seventh player in MLB history to reach 40-40 in a single season. He’s had real chances — a two-out walk against Miami starter Janson Junk on Tuesday had the Wrigley crowd buzzing before he was thrown out trying to advance, and Wednesday he went 0-for-3 with a walk without getting the green light to run. Today is his last realistic home date this season to do it in front of the Wrigley crowd, since the regular season wraps up on the road after this series.
The Bregman Injury Is More Serious Than It First Looked
Alex Bregman remains out, and it’s worth being precise about why: he’s working back from facial fractures sustained on September 20, a significantly more serious injury than a routine day-to-day issue. That’s kept Pedro Ramírez and Michael Busch shuffling around the infield, with Ramírez getting another start at third base today while Busch handles a corner spot. Bregman’s absence at this point in the season, right as the roster is trying to solidify for a possible playoff run, is a real concern beyond just today’s lineup card.
The Bullpen Problem Nobody’s Sugarcoating Anymore
Here’s the part of this week that worries me most as a Cubs fan: multiple beat reporters covering this team have stopped hedging about it. Chicago’s bullpen has been described directly as “a serious problem” that needs “a fix fast” if this team wants to survive the Wild Card round. Tuesday’s 12-inning collapse and Wednesday’s late-inning meltdown against Miami’s relievers are exactly the kind of results that turn vague preseason bullpen questions into real, immediate concerns with the playoffs one series away.
The Pitching Matchup Today
Chicago Cubs: Matthew Boyd (9-5, 4.06 ERA)
Boyd is chasing his 10th win and has been a real stabilizing presence in this rotation, working at least five innings in 15 straight appearances and averaging 5.7 innings per start. Today, giving this shaky bullpen length matters more than any specific strikeout total.
Miami Marlins: Tyler Phillips (5-6, 3.45 ERA)
Phillips has quietly had a solid season for a Marlins team that’s mostly been playing spoiler down the stretch — and spoiler is exactly the role Miami has embraced against Chicago this week. His 3.45 ERA is legitimately better than his record suggests.
What Actually Decides Today
I think this comes down to whether Chicago’s offense can finally cash in with runners on base after going ice cold in exactly those situations the last two nights, and whether the bullpen can hold whatever lead Boyd hands over. Both have been the story of this entire week, and today is the last chance to fix it in front of the home crowd.
As a Cubs fan, I want this wrapped up today — for the standings, and honestly, for Crow-Armstrong to get his moment in front of a Wrigley crowd that’s been waiting for it all week.
My Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 5, Miami Marlins 3
Can we do it this time??
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