Miami Marlins (76-80) at Chicago Cubs (87-69) | Wednesday, September 23, 2026 | 6:40 PM CT | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Tuesday’s 12-inning loss delayed the celebration, but it didn’t erase the milestone sitting right in front of this team. Pete Crow-Armstrong swiped his 39th base in that loss, and paired with 45 home runs — tied for the major-league lead — he needs just one more stolen base to become the seventh player in MLB history to join the 40-40 club. As a Cubs fan, I’d take the playoff clinch tonight in a heartbeat, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t watching every time he reaches base just as closely.
Here’s my real breakdown of tonight’s matchup — the milestone chase, the pitching matchup, and the bullpen situation that’s genuinely worth worrying about.
Game Info: Marlins at Cubs
- Date: Wednesday, September 23, 2026
- First Pitch: 7:40 PM ET
- Venue: Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois
- TV: Marquee Sports Network, Marlins.TV, MLB.TV
- Series: Miami leads 1-0 after Tuesday’s 8-2 win in 12 innings — Chicago’s second chance tonight to clinch a playoff spot
The 40-40 Chase Is Real, and It’s Happening Right Now
Let’s sit with this for a second: only six players in the history of Major League Baseball have ever recorded 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases in the same season. Crow-Armstrong is the presumptive NL MVP front-runner for a reason, and tonight — or very soon — he has a real shot at joining that club. He doesn’t need a big offensive night to do it; he just needs to reach base and get the green light once. That’s the kind of moment that turns a routine September game against a sub-.500 opponent into appointment viewing.
Don’t Read Too Much Into Tuesday’s Score
Here’s an important correction on how to think about last night’s loss: an 8-2 final looks like a laugher, but strip away the extra innings and this was actually a two-run game through nine, decided by a depleted Cubs bullpen in the 12th rather than anything resembling a real offensive discrepancy. That matters heading into tonight, because it means Chicago isn’t walking in off a genuine offensive slump — just a bullpen that got stretched too thin in a game that went four innings longer than it should have.
Why Gausman’s Splitter Is the Story Tonight
Kevin Gausman gets the ball for Chicago, and there’s a real, specific reason to like this matchup: his splitter, thrown nearly 39% of the time with a whiff rate approaching 40%, lines up about as well as any single pitch can against a swing-happy Miami lineup that’s racked up 1,310 strikeouts this season — one of the worst contact rates in baseball. Gausman’s 9.26 K/9 isn’t just a good number in a vacuum; it’s a direct weapon against exactly the kind of free-swinging approach this Marlins team has shown all year.
The Bullpen Concern Nobody Should Ignore
Here’s the part of tonight’s game that worries me more than Miami’s lineup. Chicago’s relief corps has been hit hard by injuries — seven relievers currently unavailable — and that depleted group is exactly what got exposed in Tuesday’s extra-inning collapse. If Gausman can’t work deep into tonight’s game, Chicago is relying on a bullpen running on fumes, against a team that’s already shown it can grind out a long game. Length from the starter isn’t a bonus tonight — it’s close to a necessity.
Ryan Gusto Isn’t the Pitcher to Fear
Miami counters with Ryan Gusto, who enters with an ugly 4.98 to 5.01 ERA depending on the source and a FIP right around 4.93 — the numbers of a back-of-rotation arm rather than someone who’s going to shut this Cubs lineup down. With Alex Bregman still on the mend, Pedro Ramirez should get another look at third base against the right-hander, keeping Michael Conforto and a red-hot Michael Busch further up in the order.
What Actually Decides Tonight
I think this comes down to two things: whether Gausman’s splitter does what the matchup suggests it should against Miami’s strikeout-prone lineup, and whether Chicago can avoid needing extra innings from a bullpen that’s already shown real cracks. If Gausman gives this team length, the Cubs should be in control by the middle innings against a Gusto who’s been hittable most of the season.
As a Cubs fan, I want the clinch tonight, and I want to see it happen with Crow-Armstrong etching his name into a very short list of players in the process. Give me Chicago finishing the job this time.
Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 6, Miami Marlins 3
This time I will be right! Let´s go Cubs!
The post Game Cubs vs. Marlins September 23: Pete Crow-Armstrong Is One Steal Away From the 40-40 Club Tonight appeared first on UrbanMatter.
