Game Time: Wednesday, December 31, 2025 at 7:00 PM ET
Location: United Center, Chicago
TV: CHSN
Spread: Pelicans -1.5
Moneyline: Pelicans -120, Bulls +102
Total: 244.5
It’s New Year’s Eve, and we’re hosting the New Orleans Pelicans—an 8-26 team that somehow comes into the United Center as 1.5-point favorites despite being 2-17 on the road this season.
Let me repeat that: the Pelicans are 2-17 on the road, and Vegas is making them favorites at our house.
What am I missing here? Are we that banged up? Is our recent play that concerning? Or is this just the betting market being completely insane?
Let’s figure this out.
Current Records: Tale of Two Struggling Teams
Pelicans: 8-26 (2-17 on the road)
Bulls: 15-17 (8-7 at home)
Okay, let’s be real about where both teams are. The Pelicans are bad. Like, really bad. They’re 8-26, and most of those wins came at home. On the road? They’ve won TWO games all season. That’s not a typo—they’re 2-17 away from the Smoothie King Center.
We’re 15-17, which is frustratingly mediocre. We’re two games under .500, we’ve had our moments, but we’ve also gotten blown out a couple times recently. Still, we’re 8-7 at home, which means we’re competent in our own building.
So why are the Pelicans favored? That’s the question keeping me up at night.
Why the Pelicans Are Favored (Apparently)
The betting market seems to think New Orleans has advantages here. Let me try to understand their logic:
1. Recent ATS Success
The Pelicans are 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 games. They’re losing most of those games outright, but they’re keeping them close enough to cover.
That’s… something? I guess? But covering spreads while losing games doesn’t exactly scream “bet on us as road favorites.”
2. Historical Matchup Success
New Orleans is 4-1 straight up and 4-1 ATS in their last five games against us. They’re also 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 road games specifically in Chicago.
That’s actually concerning. For whatever reason, the Pelicans have had our number recently. Even when we should beat them, they find ways to hang around or win outright.
3. Offensive Firepower
The Pelicans average 115.5 points per game on 46.3% shooting. When Zion Williamson is healthy and playing, they’ve got legitimate offensive talent. Brandon Ingram can score, CJ McCollum can get hot, and they move the ball decently.
On paper, they can score. The problem is they can’t defend, and they turn the ball over constantly.
Why This Line Makes No Sense
Let me make the counter-case for why betting the Pelicans as road favorites is insane:
1. They’re 2-17 on the Road
I can’t stress this enough. TWO wins in SEVENTEEN road games. That’s a 10.5% win rate away from home.
You’re telling me the team that can’t win on the road is laying points on the road against a team that’s 8-7 at home? That doesn’t compute.
2. Their Defense Is Awful
New Orleans has given up 123+ points in four of their last five games. Their defense is non-existent, especially on the road where they don’t have the home crowd energy to mask their deficiencies.
We’re averaging 118.3 points per game. If they can’t stop teams that score less than us, what makes anyone think they’re stopping us at the United Center?
3. Herbert Jones Is Out
Herbert Jones is the Pelicans’ best perimeter defender. Without him, they’re even worse defensively. That matters when you’re trying to slow down our guards and keep the game under control.
4. They Just Lost Four of Five
The Pelicans have lost four of their last five games, including losses to Cleveland, Phoenix (twice), and New York. They beat Dallas once—cool. But that’s the outlier, not the trend.
They’re not playing well, they’re not defending, and they’re coming to a building where we’ve been solid.
The Bulls’ Situation: Banged Up But Dangerous
Let’s be honest about our problems. We’re dealing with a bunch of injuries, and our depth is questionable right now. Several rotation guards are either out or questionable for this game, which showed up in our last two losses where we struggled to generate late-game offense.
Our Strengths
Nikola Vučević is steady. Vooch gives us 15.8 points and 9.1 rebounds every night. He’s consistent, reliable, and against a Pelicans team that fouls a lot and struggles inside, he should feast.
We shoot well. We’re shooting better from the field and from three than New Orleans. We move the ball well (nearly 30 assists per game), and when we execute, we’re tough to beat at home.
Home court matters. We’re 8-7 at the United Center. Not great, but we play better defense at home and control the pace.
Our Weaknesses
Injuries are piling up. Our rotation is thin right now, and if guys aren’t available, our offense can stall out.
Recent blowout losses. We’ve gotten destroyed twice recently, which raises questions about our ability to compete against good teams.
Depth concerns. When our starters sit, can our bench hold up? That’s been inconsistent all season.
The Total: Under 244.5 Is Screaming at Us
Here’s the most interesting part of this game: we’ve gone under the total in nine straight home games.
Nine. Straight. Games.
The total is set at 244.5, which assumes a high-scoring shootout. But we don’t play shootouts at home. We slow games down, play defense, and grind out wins in the low-to-mid 110s.
Even with New Orleans averaging 115.5 points per game, I don’t see this game flying over 244.5. We’re going to slow the pace, Vooch is going to control the paint, and even if both teams score efficiently, I don’t think we crack 240 combined points.
The under feels like the safest bet on the board.
Betting Trends That Matter
Pelicans Trends
11-4 ATS in last 15 games (but losing most of them)
2-17 straight up on the road (disaster)
4-1 ATS and 4-1 SU in last 5 vs Bulls (this hurts)
1-4 straight up in last 5 overall
Bulls Trends
5-2 ATS in last 7 games
5-2 straight up in last 7 games
Under in 4 of last 5 games
Under in 9 straight home games (this is huge)
The trends tell two stories: New Orleans covers spreads but doesn’t win, and we go under at home consistently.
My Picks: Bulls Moneyline and Under
Best Bet: Bulls Moneyline +102
I cannot—in good conscience—bet on a team that’s 2-17 on the road as a road favorite, even if it’s only 1.5 points.
The Pelicans might have had our number historically, but they’re falling apart this season. They can’t defend, they’re banged up themselves, and they can’t win away from home.
We’re at home, we’re 8-7 at the United Center, and we’re getting plus money on the moneyline? I’ll take that all day.
Confidence: Medium-High
Strong Lean: Under 244.5
Nine straight unders at home. NINE. This isn’t a fluke—this is how we play basketball at the United Center. We slow the game down, control possessions, and keep totals in check.
Even if New Orleans scores their 115-ish points, we’re not putting up 130 to push this over. This stays under 240 comfortably.
Confidence: High
Risky Play: Bulls -1.5 (if the line flips)
If the line moves and we become favorites, I’d consider Bulls -1.5. But as currently constructed with us as underdogs, the moneyline is the smarter play.
Keys to Victory
For the Bulls to win:
Vooch dominates inside (18+ points, 10+ rebounds)
Hit our three-pointers (we shoot better than them)
Limit turnovers (they average 13.4, we’re usually better)
Play defense and force New Orleans into bad shots
Get 20+ from Coby White or whoever’s healthy
What could go wrong:
Zion goes off for 35+
Our injuries catch up to us late
We go cold from three in the fourth quarter
New Orleans’ recent ATS success vs us continues
Refs give us the “home team gets screwed” whistle
The Honest Bulls Fan Take
This line feels like a trap. The Pelicans are 2-17 on the road, and we’re getting them at home on New Year’s Eve? With plus money on the moneyline?
Either Vegas knows something about our injuries that I don’t, or the market is overvaluing New Orleans’ recent ATS success against us.
I’m choosing to believe the latter. We’re at home. We control pace. We go under consistently. And the Pelicans can’t win on the road to save their lives.
My Prediction: Bulls 115, Pelicans 110
We win, we cover if the line moves, and the under cashes easily.
Let’s end 2025 with a W at the United Center.
Final Betting Summary
Best Bet: Bulls Moneyline +102 ✓✓✓
Getting plus money on a home team against a 2-17 road team? Yes please.
Strong Lean: Under 244.5 ✓✓✓
Nine straight home unders. The trend is our friend.
Avoid: Pelicans -1.5
Betting a 2-17 road team as road favorites is a great way to lose money.
Prop to Watch: Vučević Over 9.5 Rebounds
Pelicans foul a lot, play soft inside, and Vooch will eat on the glass.
Let´s go Bulls!
Happy New Year, and let’s cash these tickets.
The post Pelicans vs Bulls Prediction Game Today December 31: New Year’s Eve at the United Center appeared first on UrbanMatter.
