Game Time: Monday, December 29, 2025 at 8:00 PM ET
Location: United Center, Chicago
Spread: Bulls +5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Bulls +180 | Timberwolves -227
Total: 240 points
Okay, let’s talk about this line. The Minnesota Timberwolves are 5.5-point favorites at the United Center? Against a Bulls team that just won five straight games before losing to the Bucks and Giannis going supernova?
I get it—Minnesota is 20-12, they’ve got Anthony Edwards dropping 29.3 per game, and Julius Randle is putting up 22.6. They’re the “better team” on paper. But 5.5 points at our house? That feels like Vegas is betting on star power and ignoring what we actually do at the United Center.
We’re 8-7 at home. Not great, but not terrible. We just strung together five wins in a row before Milwaukee ended the streak. And now we’re supposed to roll over for Minnesota by more than 5 points?
Nah. I’m not buying it.
Current Records and What They Don’t Tell You
Timberwolves: 20-12 (8-6 on the road)
Bulls: 15-16 (8-7 at home)
Sure, Minnesota has the better record. But let’s dig into what those numbers actually mean.
The Wolves are 8-6 on the road. That’s decent, but it’s not like they’re the 2017 Warriors blowing teams out on their home floor. They win road games, but not by massive margins. They’re not showing up in hostile buildings and dominating.
We’re 8-7 at the United Center, which means we’re right around .500 at home. But here’s the thing—when we’re clicking, when the offense is moving and Giddey is facilitating, we can beat anybody in our building. That five-game win streak wasn’t a fluke. That was us playing the basketball we’re capable of playing.
The Bulls’ Offensive Balance vs Minnesota’s Star Power
Here’s where this matchup gets interesting. Everyone wants to talk about Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle—and they should, those guys are legit. But let’s compare the offensive firepower:
Minnesota’s Top 3:
Anthony Edwards: 29.3 PPG
Julius Randle: 22.6 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 5.7 APG
Jaden McDaniels: 15.3 PPG, 4.6 RPG
Combined: 67.2 PPG
Chicago’s Top 3:
Coby White: 20.5 PPG
Josh Giddey: 19.5 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 9.2 APG
Nikola Vučević: 15.8 PPG, 9.1 RPG
Combined: 55.8 PPG
Wait, so we’re scoring less from our top three? Yeah, but look at those assist and rebound numbers from Giddey. 9.2 assists per game means our offense isn’t just about guys getting their own shots—it’s about ball movement and creating open looks.
Josh Giddey is the key to everything we do offensively. When he’s facilitating, finding shooters, and pushing the pace, we’re a completely different team. And Vooch gives us that steady veteran presence—15.8 points and 9.1 boards every single night. That’s consistency.
The Giddey Factor
Josh Giddey is listed as probable with an ankle issue, which is something to monitor. If he’s limited, this game gets a lot harder. But the “probable” tag tells me he’s playing, and if he’s out there, he’s going to create opportunities.
9.2 assists per game over 96 possessions means we’re generating quality shots. That’s not isolation basketball—that’s actual offensive execution. And when you’re moving the ball like that at home, with the crowd into it, good things happen.
Anthony Edwards Will Get His—But Can Minnesota Cover?
Let’s be realistic: Anthony Edwards is going to score. He’s averaging 29.3 per game for a reason. The dude is a bucket, and he’s going to get his 25-30 points no matter what we do.
But here’s the question—can the rest of Minnesota’s roster provide enough secondary scoring to pull away and cover 5.5 points on the road?
Julius Randle is excellent, averaging 22.6 points with 5.7 assists. He’s not just a scorer—he facilitates. But after Edwards and Randle, who’s beating us? Jaden McDaniels at 15.3 points is solid, but he’s not a guy who’s going to drop 30 on us out of nowhere.
And here’s the kicker—Terrence Shannon Jr. is out with a foot injury. That’s one less bench piece for Minnesota to lean on when Edwards and Randle sit. When the stars rest, can Minnesota’s second unit maintain the lead? Or do we claw back into it?
That’s where this game is won or lost.
Why the Bulls Can Cover (and Maybe Win Outright)
1. We’re Actually Good at Home
8-7 at the United Center isn’t world-beating, but it’s respectable. And more importantly, when we’re healthy and executing, we’ve proven we can win at home.
That five-game win streak? Four of those were at the United Center. We know how to use our crowd. When the energy is right, when Coby and Giddey are cooking, we’re tough to beat in our building.
2. Offensive Balance Keeps Us in Games
Minnesota has the star power, but we have the depth. Coby White can get hot and drop 25-30 on any given night. Giddey’s playmaking creates open looks for everyone. Vooch is steady in the paint and can stretch the floor.
We’re not relying on one guy to carry us. That balance means we can survive if one player has an off night. Minnesota? If Edwards and Randle aren’t clicking, they’re in trouble.
3. We Can Win the Rebounding Battle
Vooch and Giddey are both averaging over 9 rebounds per game. That’s significant in a game like this. If we control the glass, we limit Minnesota’s second-chance points and create extra possessions for ourselves.
Julius Randle at 7.0 rebounds is solid, but he’s not a dominant rebounder. If we crash the boards and win the possession battle, we control the pace. And when we control pace, we’re dangerous.
4. Minnesota’s Road Record Isn’t Scary
8-6 on the road is fine. It’s not dominant. The Timberwolves aren’t the kind of team that shows up in hostile environments and blows teams out by double digits.
They win on the road, but they don’t cover big spreads consistently. And that’s what this line is asking them to do—not just win, but win by 6+ points in a building where we’ve been competitive all season.
5. The Market Is Overvaluing Star Power
The betting market loves Anthony Edwards. And they should—he’s a superstar. But the 5.5-point spread feels like it’s giving Minnesota full credit for having the best player on the floor without accounting for our ability to stay competitive.
We don’t need to out-talent them. We just need to execute, move the ball, and keep this game within one possession in the final five minutes. If we do that, 5.5 points is plenty of cushion.
What Could Go Wrong?
Let’s be real—there are ways this goes sideways for us:
Anthony Edwards goes nuclear. If Ant-Man drops 40+ and takes over the game, all the ball movement in the world won’t save us.
Giddey’s ankle is worse than reported. If Josh can’t facilitate because he’s hurt, our offense loses its engine.
We go cold from three. If Coby, Giddey, and our shooters can’t hit open looks, Minnesota can pull away.
Minnesota’s defense locks in. If they rotate perfectly and take away our passing lanes, we’re in trouble.
But here’s the thing—none of those feel likely. Edwards might go off, but he’s not averaging 40. Giddey is probable, which means he’s playing. And we’ve been shooting well during this stretch.
The Betting Angle: Bulls +5.5 Is the Play
My Pick: Bulls +5.5 (-110)
I’m not saying we’re going to win outright (though I wouldn’t be shocked if we do). I’m saying we’re going to keep this game close deep into the fourth quarter, and 5.5 points is a lot of cushion when you’re dealing with a team that’s been as competitive as we’ve been lately.
Minnesota is the better team. They’ll probably win. But covering 5.5 on the road against a Bulls team that just won five straight, plays well at home, and has the offensive balance to hang around? That’s asking too much.
Confidence Level: High
This is the kind of game where we lose by 2 or 3 and everyone says “yeah, Minnesota was better” while we cash our +5.5 ticket and smile.
Alternative Bet: Bulls Moneyline +180
If you’re feeling spicy, a small play on the Bulls moneyline at +180 isn’t crazy. We’re live underdogs at home with Giddey facilitating and Vooch providing steady production. If Ant-Man has an off night and we shoot well, we can absolutely win this game outright.
But the safer, smarter play is Bulls +5.5.
Keys to Covering (or Winning)
For the Bulls to cover +5.5:
Giddey plays and facilitates effectively (9+ assists)
Win the rebounding battle
Coby White stays aggressive (20+ points)
Limit Minnesota’s second-chance points
Keep Edwards under 32 points (good luck with that)
What kills us:
Giddey’s ankle is worse than expected
We go ice cold from three
Edwards drops 40+
Minnesota’s bench outplays ours significantly
The Honest Bulls Fan Take
Look, I’m not delusional. Minnesota has more talent. Anthony Edwards is a superstar. Julius Randle is really good. They have a better record.
But this is the United Center. This is our house. And we just won five straight games before running into a healthy Giannis (who’s basically unstoppable right now).
The 5.5-point spread feels like Vegas is giving Minnesota full credit for being the better team without accounting for our ability to stay competitive at home. We’ve got the ball movement, the rebounding, and the depth to keep this game close.
Will we win? Maybe. Will we cover? I think so.
Bulls +5.5. Lock it in.
Final Prediction: Timberwolves 118, Bulls 115
We lose, but we cover. And honestly? After the season we’ve had, I’ll take staying competitive against a 20-12 team and cashing a bet.
Bear Down. Let’s prove these oddsmakers wrong.
Quick Injury Report
Timberwolves:
Terrence Shannon Jr. (OUT – left foot abductor hallucis strain)
Bulls:
Josh Giddey (PROBABLE – ankle)
Zach Collins (OUT – right first toe soreness)
Giddey playing is crucial. If he’s out, this line moves significantly. But the probable tag says he’s good to go.
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